Before opening your first shop, put payment and receipt dates on a timeline to identify when cash could run short.
You’re preparing to open your brand’s first shop in Morocco. You’ve budgeted for the fit-out, initial stock and rent. But if the final fit-out payment is due before your first card takings reach your bank account, the budget total won’t tell you whether you can pay on time. You need to see the order in which cash comes in and goes out.
A rolling 13-week cash flow forecast answers that question. It starts with cash that is actually available and projects movements on the dates you expect them to happen. It complements your opening budget and profit forecast. It does not predict whether the business will be profitable or whether you’ll secure funding.
1. Start before opening, not on the first day of sales
Start the forecast this week, or on the date of the first commitment you want to test. Record the cash available on that date. A promised payment, funding still under review or a deposit tied up elsewhere is not available cash. If a contribution is confirmed but has not been paid, record it on the expected transfer date, not in your opening balance.
Give each week a start and end date. For large payments, keep the exact date, the document that supports it and the name of the person responsible for checking it. Considering two premises? Enter the deposit, fit-out and first rent dates for each. Your location comparison will be more useful if it also shows how much cash each site ties up before you welcome a customer.
2. Record each movement when it affects your balance
Cash coming in: separate the sale from the payout
An order, an invoice and a payout need not fall in the same week. Separate payments collected at the point of sale, payouts from your payment provider and orders invoiced to business customers. For each channel, start with the agreed terms and use actual payouts as soon as you have them. If your provider transfers the amount net of its fees, don’t deduct those fees a second time. Record refunds according to how they actually affect your balance.
Cash going out: separate deposits, balances and running costs
Split the fit-out quote into its agreed payment instalments, then do the same for fixtures and opening stock. Add running costs such as rent, pay, services, replenishment and any other payments that apply to your project. Check amounts and dates with the people responsible instead of assuming a standard due date. A security deposit reduces available cash even if it does not belong among operating expenses in your profit forecast.
Classify each line as confirmed by a document or agreement, estimated with a stated assumption, or not secured and tested separately. For example, don’t rely on a large sale that is still under negotiation to balance your base case. Working out pricing and contribution per sale helps you estimate what trading generates. The weekly forecast shows when the money becomes available.
3. Find the low point even if the final week is positive
For each column, calculate: closing balance = opening balance + receipts − payments. The result becomes the next week’s opening balance. Look for the lowest balance, its date and the movement that causes it. Choose an alert threshold that reflects your essential payments and how much time you need to respond; there is no universal cash buffer for every shop.
Fictional example in Moroccan dirhams: a brand has MAD 35,000 available to prepare its first shop. The three weeks below are an extract from the forecast, not an estimate of typical opening costs in Morocco.
- Week 1: 35,000 at the start, no receipts and 19,000 to pay. Balance: MAD 16,000.
- Week 2: 16,000 at the start, 7,000 received and 17,000 paid. Balance: MAD 6,000.
- Week 3: 6,000 at the start, 18,000 received and 10,000 paid. Balance: MAD 14,000.
If MAD 9,000 of week 3 receipts arrive in week 4 instead, the week 3 closing balance falls to MAD 5,000. And if the MAD 17,000 in week 2 leaves your account on Monday before the expected MAD 7,000 comes in, the interim balance would be negative by MAD 1,000 even though Friday ends positive. Switch to daily forecasting around tight deadlines. One column per week isn’t always enough.
4. Turn the warning into a decision before you sign
Build the base case first. Then change one assumption at a time: a delayed opening, a late payout or more stock needed at launch. Compare the first day cash gets tight, the lowest balance and the time you have to act. Next, test a plausible combination if the events could happen together.
Against each warning, write down a specific action, who owns it and the deadline. For example, ask for a quote split into two phases before you sign, update the opening schedule or get deposit terms in writing. Don’t move an existing payment due date in the forecast without agreement. If no realistic scenario covers essential commitments, pause the decision and have your assumptions checked instead of adding optimistic receipts.
A routine to keep after opening
- Reconcile the opening balance against actual movements.
- Replace the week just ended with actuals and identify differences in dates or amounts.
- Add a new thirteenth week without erasing the previous forecast.
- Check where upcoming payments cluster and set a date for the next decision.
Beyond opening, distinguish this timetable from the ongoing needs tied to working capital. If you are preparing to replicate your concept, Maroc Franchise Value’s consulting expertise can help you connect operating decisions to the stages of growing your brand.
Frequently asked questions
Does the cash flow forecast replace the business plan?
No. The business plan explains the project and its longer-term assumptions. The rolling forecast checks whether receipts and payments come in an order that lets you meet near-term commitments.
Do I need actual sales before I can start?
No. Separate confirmed cash movements from estimates and keep a more cautious scenario. Once payments start coming in, use the actual timing and amounts to revise the forecast instead of rolling forward the initial assumptions unchanged.